IPL Playoffs: The odds are stacked heavily against Royal Challengers Bengaluru going into the Eliminator against Rajasthan Royals on Wednesday. The match will be played at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad.
RCB’s unbelievable run in the second half of the IPL has made the Red Army fans feel – “Ee Sala Cup Namde” (This year, the cup is ours). However, the fans need to keep their emotions in check. Technically and historically speaking, RCB’s chances of winning the IPL 2024 is a mere 6.25 percent.
We will get to the mathematical percentages later, meanwhile, let’s look at how the RCB has fared in their eliminator match history. Overall, the Red Army has played five IPL eliminator games, and the results are as follows.
| Royal Challengers Bengaluru In IPL Eliminators | ||||
| SEASON | DATE | MATCH | RESULT | VENUE |
| 2010 | Apr 21, 2010 | MI vs RCB | MI won by 35 runs | Navi Mumbai |
| 2015 | May 20, 2015 | RR vs RCB | RCB won by 71 runs | Pune |
| 2016 | May 14, 2016 | RCB vs GL | RCB won by 144 runs | Bengaluru |
| 2020 | Nov 06, 2020 | RCB vs SRH | SRH won by 6 wickets | Abu Dhabi |
| 2022 | May 25, 2022 | LSG vs RCB | RCB won by 14 runs | Kolkata |
In 2010, the Red Army squared off with Paltan in the semis, which is also considered as an eliminator. RCB has won three knockout matches and lost two, which is a pretty good record. The last time they were in an eliminator was against Lucknow Super Giants in Kolkata. RCB defeated LSG by 14 runs and made it to the qualifier 2, where they lost to Rajasthan Royals by 7 wickets.
RCB needs to emulate Deccan Chargers’ feat in 2009
Now, we come to the 6.25 percent part, and the calculation. In the past 14 editions, no team has won the IPL title, finishing in the 4th spot. In 16 seasons, overall, the first and only team to win an IPL title after finishing in the 4th spot in the points table, at the end of the league stage was the Deccan Chargers. As it has happened only once in 16 completed seasons, thus the percentage calculation. (1/16 *100 = 6.25)
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Coincidentally, the RCB was at the receiving end of the IPL 2009 final in Johannesburg. The Chargers, under Adam Gilchrist, defeated the Anil Kumble-led Bengaluru side by six wickets to write a remarkable comeback in tournament history.
The only difference is that in 2009, there was no playoff system, and the top four teams made it to the semis. Since 2011, the side finishing fourth has had to win an eliminator, then the second qualifier, and finally the final to win the IPL title.
RCB has never won an IPL trophy, despite making it to the final thrice in 2009, 2011, and 2016. This time though, they are running high on confidence, winning six straight matches to book a spot in the playoffs. Now, it is time for them to take one step at a time and realize their long-standing dream of winning an IPL title.
Even though the RCB has a mere 6.25 percent chance of winning the IPL trophy, someone like Virat Kohli will grab that opportunity with both hands.
No team in IPL history has managed to achieve this unique feat for the past 14 years. RCB has a chance to not only rewrite history books but also to carve a legacy of its own. If Virat Kohli and company can achieve this impossible feat, it will be a season to remember for Red Army fans for the rest of their lives.
