With only 15 test matches left in the current WTC cycle, the battle for the top two has really heated up. No side yet, is guaranteed a place in the WTC25 final and several teams still have a shot at landing one of the coveted spots. Here’s how the teams are shaping up as they go into the final stretch:
South Africa
Percent: 59.26, matches remaining: SL (1 home Test), PAK (2 home)
A big win for South Africa at Durban has put them in a good position, but they still need to pick up more points to guarantee qualification to the WTC25 final. If they lose to Sri Lanka but win both their remaining Tests against Pakistan, then they would still have a fair chance of qualification with 61.11%. However, the two teams that could surpass them both are Sri Lanka and India. If South Africa somehow draw their second Test against Sri Lanka and then beat Pakistan 1-0, things would be much safer than they are now. In this best-case scenario, winning each of their next two series could guarantee them a place at the final, with only a possibility of Australia and India outscoring them.
Sri Lanka
Percent: 50.00, matches remaining: SA (1 away Test), AUS (2 home)
Sri Lanka’s loss in Durban has complicated their route to the WTC25 final. They can get a maximum of 61.54% if they win their remaining three tests, which will guarantee them a spot in the final. However if they lose another test, they will rely on other teams’ performances as South Africa, India and Australia could surpass them. In order to stay ahead of the pack, Sri Lanka should aim to win the series against South Africa and Australia in their last matches.
New Zealand
Percent: 50.00, matches remaining: ENG (2 home)
New Zealand’s chances are somewhat doused by its dismal performance in Christchurch, reducing their highest possible points to 57.14%. Though this leaves them a thin chance, they still have a mathematical chance to be in the WTC25 final. For instance, if the Australia-India series goes 1-1 and other series end in draws, New Zealand will top the table. However they would need a number of results to go in their favor to qualify and will rely on a series win against England for their hopes.
India
Percent: 61.11, matches remaining: AUS (4 away)
A dominant win in Perth has increased India’s chances of qualifying into the final, however they need to finish strong in the remaining series against Australia. To be confirmed for a place in the WTC25 finals, India need to win three out of four remaining tests at Australia. In case India wins 3-0, it would get more points than Sri Lanka’s best achievable points and also would stand better than South Africa. While it has lesser points, they might also qualify among top two. However this all greatly depends on other teams. India’s fate is tied not only to their own results but also to the performances of South Africa, Australia and Sri Lanka.
Australia
Percent: 57.69, matches remaining: Ind (4 home Tests), SL (2 away)
Australia’s loss to India in Perth has placed them under pressure. With their remaining six tests, they need four wins and a draw to stay in the hunt. If they win both the home series against India and Sri Lanka, they will exceed Sri Lanka’s maximum potential points. However Australia can finish at the top two only if they make their remaining series spotless, especially the one against Sri Lanka in the away series. Even if India wins 3-2 in the current series, Australia may finish ahead as they would have swept Sri Lanka.
Pakistan
Percent: 33.33, matches remaining: SA (2 away), WI (2 home)
Pakistan’s revival at home has come too late in the cycle. Their maximum possible points of 52.38% still leave them with slim chances of qualification. To even have a chance, they would need several results to go their way. If Sri Lanka and New Zealand fail to go well in their remaining series, Pakistan may still end up in the running for a second-place finish. However, even a perfect record in their last four Tests most likely will not be enough to secure them a place in the final without other results working in their favor.
England
Percent: 43.75, matches remaining: NZ (2 away)
England’s hopes of qualification are very low however not impossible. They now stand at 43.75% after their win in Christchurch, which means that there is very little margin for error. Still, on paper, they can mathematically finish second if all the other results go in their favor. If India loses all the remaining tests and South Africa and Sri Lanka do not garner enough points, England could sneak into second place. However, their chances of qualification for the WTC25 final are extremely low.
Bangladesh and West Indies (Eliminated)
Both Bangladesh and the West Indies are effectively out of the running for the top two positions in the WTC25 and their points and results aren’t enough to challenge the leaders.
As the last 15 test matches take place, the battle for a place in the WTC25 final at Lord’s is bound to intensify. South Africa, Sri Lanka and India have a shot at it, whereas Australia, New Zealand and Pakistan still have a very slim chance. A few results will determine who finally goes to the final however one thing is sure, the race to the final of the WTC25 is wide open.
The Sportz Planet Desk,
Atharva Shetye
